Blackjack Probability Table
Blackjack Probability Table Rating: 8,6/10 6484 votes
Blackjack Dealer Outcome Probabilities The dealer outcome probability charts on this page can be helpful in determining which of two tournament strategies is preferable. The values in these charts were calculated using a combinatorial analysis from a full deck after removing only the dealer’s upcard. The more players at the table, the better for the player in the last seat. The more players busted before the third base, the lower the bust probability for the blackjack player in the last position. The reverse is also true: No busts by the players before you, in the last position, your bust probability is higher — the blackjack dealer's, too!
No one can deny that blackjack is so attractive to the gamblers because of its simplicity and the fact that here not only luck runs the show but much depends on your skills. Nevertheless, a lot of amateur gamblers playing blackjack take decisions based upon mere intuition. Unfortunately, with a strategy like that you will hardly become a long-term winner. We recommend you to play considering mathematical principles and be able to understand and use blackjack probability and blackjack odds.
First thing you need to know is that the casino always has an advantage. In most blackjack casinos the house advantage is 7-8%. The house gets this advantage by the dealer being the last player to act. When the dealer acts last, the player has already made the decision and could quite possibly bust before the dealer acts. Regardless of how favourable blackjack rules of the casino are, or how much the odds favor you, this one little detail always gives the house the edge. But this edge is significantly lower than in other casino games, and for this reason blackjack continues to be one of the most popular online casino games.
By using blackjack basic strategy, you can reduce the blackjack odds in favor of casino down to 0.5% but this is possible only if you use advanced card counting systems or at least basic blackjack strategy. You'll significantly increase your chance to beat the house if you remember as much as possible from this page.
Blackjack Probability of Busting on a Hit
Custom Blackjack Tables
It's very important to know the probability of your hand busting when you are holding any total in the game of blackjack. The following chart shows your blackjack odds of busting with respect to your hand value.
| Hand Value | % Bust If You Hit |
| 21 | 100% |
| 20 | 92% |
| 19 | 85% |
| 18 | 77% |
| 17 | 69% |
| 16 | 62% |
| 15 | 58% |
| 14 | 56% |
| 13 | 39% |
| 12 | 31% |
| 11 or Less | 0% |
Player Advantage vs. Dealer Up Card
This chart shows the chances of a dealer to bust with regard to the up card he has. Note that the dealer has the highest chance to go bust when he is showing a 5.
The third column shows the player advantage of using basic blackjack strategy, compared to each up card the dealer is showing.
Poker Probability Table
| Dealer Up Card | Dealer Bust % | Player Advantage % with Basic Strategy |
| 2 | 35.30% | 9.8% |
| 3 | 37.56% | 13.4% |
| 4 | 40.28% | 18.0% |
| 5 | 42.89% | 23.2% |
| 6 | 42.08% | 23.9% |
| 7 | 25.99% | 14.3% |
| 8 | 23.86% | 5.4% |
| 9 | 23.34% | -4.3% |
| J,Q,K | 21.43% | -16.9% |
| A | 11.65% | -16.0% |